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Applying Risk and Resilience Metrics to Energy Investments

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Technical Report

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Naval Postgraduate School Monterey United States

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The purpose of this research is to develop a more comprehensive energy investment decision model that includes intangible factors related to risk and resiliency. Additionally, this project evaluates the current Department of the Navy energy investment model and pinpoints how gaps and shortfalls lead to increased exposure to avoidable energy risk. The project selects the relevant risk and resiliency factors for inclusion, and then quantifies them as inputs for a new decision making model. The model developed for this project includes cost metrics and policy mandates that the current model considers and adds the intangible factors related to risk and resiliency. To validate the model, the Bloom Box Energy Server is evaluated under the status quo and then again under the new model, with risk and resiliency playing a larger role in the outcome. The results show that under the status quo, the Bloom Box is a poor energy investment however, when evaluated under the new model, the Bloom Box is a more attractive investment due to the energy security and independence it provides. The different outcomes show that energy risk and resiliency factors affect energy decisions. This project then recommends follow-on research options to further develop and validate the model.

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