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Predicting Cost Growth Using Programs Reviews and Milestones for DoD Aircraft

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Technical Report,01 Oct 2014,24 Mar 2016

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Air Force Institute of Technology WPAFB United States

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Past research shows predicting cost growth is an important topic with DoD systems. Researchers have attempted to predict total program cost growth as well as identify predictors of program cost growth. Our research addresses this through examining cost growth at reviews and milestones along an aircrafts schedule. We assess cost growth factors at four major reviews, Critical Design Review, First Flight, Development Test and Evaluation End, and Initial Operating Capability.The first portion of the analysis focuses on identifying cost growth factors and percent of total cost growth at the four program reviews. The second portion identifies predictors of cost growth at the four reviews. In our results, we present a spike in procurement cost growth first occurring around First Flight and we identify the median percent of total cost growth at IOC, or 48 percent of program completion to be 91 . The second portion of the results identifies the three most common predictors of cost growth at program reviews Bombers, Prototyping, and electronic aircraft system upgrades.

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