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Predicting Schedule Duration for Defense Acquisition Programs: Program Initiation to Initial Operational Capability

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Technical Report,01 Sep 2014,24 Mar 2016

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Air Force Institute of Technology WPAFB United States

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Accurately predicting the most realistic schedule for a defense acquisitions program is an extremely difficult task considering the inherent risk and uncertainties present in the early stages of a program. We use a multiple regression analysis to predict schedule duration in a defense acquisition program. The prediction scope of our research is limited to predicting schedule duration from program initiation to initial operation capability IOC.We use the data from 56 programs across all services, which was acquired from a SAR database created by RAND. We were able to achieve an R2 of 0.429 and an Adjusted R2 of 0.384 in our finalized model multiple regression model. Based on the lack of clarity present in the early stages of a program, we look to the R2 and Adjusted R2 of our final model to be significant in predicting schedule from program initiation to IOC. We found whether MS-B start occurred in 1985 or later, a program was a modification or not, the RDT and E funding at MS-B start BY16, and RDT and E M at MS-B start BY16 to be significant predictors of the time in months between MS-B start and IOC.

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