Cost Overrun Optimism: Fact or Fiction
Defense Acquisition University Fort Belvoir United States
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The purpose of this study was to determine if the overruns at completion projected by contractor and government personnel are unrealistically optimistic. Research has established that, once a contract is 15 percent complete, the final cost overrun will exceed the cost overrun to date W. Abba,personal communication, 1992 Christensen, 1989 Heise, 1991 Wilson,1991. Thus, a projected overrun at completion is defined as unrealistically optimistic if it is less than the present cost overrun.