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A Model for Forecasting Enlisted Student IA Billet Requirements

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Technical Report

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Center for Naval Analyses Arlington United States

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The student portion of the Navys Individuals Account Student IA represents the time that sailors spend in training while in a student status. Sailors in a student status are not part of the Navys distributable inventory and, therefore, are not available for assignment to fleet units. Over execution of the student account, which occurs when in-year student IA execution exceeds its authorized endstrength ES, impedes the Navys ability to man the fleet. Many factors affect how well student IA execution aligns with its authorized ES. Chief among them is the ability to accurately forecast future student execution levels. These forecasts become the student ES requirements for program deliberations in the Program Objectives Memorandum POM process. The Navy recognizes the need to improve its forecasting capability. This study addresses that need by developing a prototype model that implements a new methodology for forecasting enlisted student billet requirements. The proposed model calculates these requirements by enlisted management community EMC and learning center based on future accession and fleet manpower requirements.

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