Acquisition Challenge: The Importance of Incompressibility in Comparing Learning Curve Models
Journal Article - Open Access
U.S. Air Force Cost Analysis Agency Arlington United States
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The Department of Defense DoD cost estimating methodology currentlyemploys T. P. Wrights 75-plus-year-old learning curve formula. The goal ofthis research was to examine alternative learning curve models and determineif a more reliable and valid cost estimation method exists, which couldbe incorporated within the DoD acquisition environment. This study testedthree alternative learning models the Stanford-B model, DeJongs learningformula, and the S-Curve model to compare predicted against actual costsfor the F-15 A-E jet fighter platform. The results indicate that the S-Curveand DeJong models offer improvement over current estimation techniques,but more importantlyand unexpectedlyhighlight the importance ofincompressibility the amount of a process that is automated in learningcurve estimating.
- Economics and Cost Analysis