Bayesian Inference of Nonstationary Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Infrastructure Design
Army Engineer Research and Development Center Vicksburg United States
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The purpose of this document is to demonstrate the application of Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo MCMC simulation as a formal probabilistic-based means by which to develop local precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency IDF curves using historical rainfall time series data collected for a given surface network station, including the treatment of a nonstationary climate condition. This objective will be accomplished by independently revisiting parts of an example originally profiled by Cheng and AghaKouchak 2014. This Technical Note will conclude with a brief discussion of some potential opportunities for future U.S. Army Corps of Engineers USACE research and development directed at extreme rainfall frequency analysis.
- Statistics and Probability