Accession Number:

AD1005455

Title:

Bayesian Inference of Nonstationary Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Infrastructure Design

Descriptive Note:

Technical Report

Corporate Author:

Army Engineer Research and Development Center Vicksburg United States

Report Date:

2016-03-01

Pagination or Media Count:

20.0

Abstract:

The purpose of this document is to demonstrate the application of Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo MCMC simulation as a formal probabilistic-based means by which to develop local precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency IDF curves using historical rainfall time series data collected for a given surface network station, including the treatment of a nonstationary climate condition. This objective will be accomplished by independently revisiting parts of an example originally profiled by Cheng and AghaKouchak 2014. This Technical Note will conclude with a brief discussion of some potential opportunities for future U.S. Army Corps of Engineers USACE research and development directed at extreme rainfall frequency analysis.

Subject Categories:

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Meteorology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE