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Predictive Models to Estimate Probabilities of Injuries, Poor Physical Fitness, and Attrition Outcomes in Australian Defense Force Army Recruit Training

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Technical Report

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U.S. Army Research Institute of Environmental Medicine Natick United States

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The purpose of this investigation was to assess the predictive potential of variables collected during the Australian Defence Force Recruit Training n19,769 7,692 28-day reservists course 12,077 80-day standard. The 28-day incurred 17.6 injury rate, 1 stress fracture, 5.2 attrition, 30.0 fitness test failure. The 80-day 34.3 injury rate, 44 stress fractures, 5.0 attrition, 12.1 fitness test failure. Separate models were derived to predict injuries, attrition, and failure to pass the final physical fitness tests. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves AUCs for course-specific predictive models were relatively low ranging from 0.51 to 0.69 consistent with failed to poor predictive accuracy. Course-combined models performed somewhat better, with 2 models having AUCs of 0.70 and 0.78 considered fair predictive accuracy. Although overall predictive accuracy was poor, accuracy was improved in models that included course length 28 vs. 80 day as a predictor suggesting the potential for using duration of training as a proxy for physical activity dosage to help predict injury and physical fitness.

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