Increasing Salvo Kill Probability through Aim Point Patterning
NAVAL WEAPONS LAB DAHLGREN VA
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An expression is developed for the probability of at least one hit on a target in a salvo of N rounds under the following assumptions 1 the target is circular of radius a 2 the rounds are aimed at a pattern of points about the target center 3 the aiming error, common to all rounds in the salvo, is governed by a circular normal distribution with variance Sigma sub 1 squared 4 the round-to-round or random errors, separate and independent for each round in the salvo, are governed by a circular normal distribution with variance Sigma sub 2 squared and 5 there is independence between the aiming error and the random errors. Restricting the pattern of aim points to equidistant points on a circle centered at the target center, the expression is used to obtain pattern radii which yield maximum probability for a variety of values of the parameters average radius a over sigma sub 2, average sigma sub 1 sigma sub 1 over sigma sub 2, and N. A comparison of these maximum probabilities with those obtained by aiming all rounds at the target center shows that a substantial increase in probability can be achieved through aim point patterning.