A Decision Theoretic Approach to the PERT Subjective Estimation Problem.
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
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In the PERT subjective estimation problem the objective is to obtain subjective estimates of the unknown parameters of an activity time distribution. The decision theoretic approach suggested in this thesis is based on a single most likely prediction, and it transfers the burden of subjective estimation from the expert to the decisionmaker. No assumption is made regarding the form of the activity time distribution instead attention is focused on the distribution of the experts prediction given the unknown parameters of the activity time distribution. Bayes estimates for the mean and standard deviation are investigated for a generalized absolute deviation loss function, and examples assuming a uniform distribution for the experts prediction are presented. Author
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