Accession Number:

AD0860893

Title:

The Pure Birth Process Applied to Navy Aircraft Accidents

Descriptive Note:

Special project

Corporate Author:

NAVAL AIR SYSTEMS COMMAND WASHINGTON DC PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT CENTER

Personal Author(s):

• Trobaugh, Diane E.

Report Date:

1969-07-01

Pagination or Media Count:

85.0

Abstract:

Non-combat aircraft accident statistics indicate that a direct relationship exists between the number of accidents and accumulated flight hours or similarly between the accident rate and accumulated flight hours for each model of military airplane. This paper investigates the feasibility of relating accident rates directly to the total number of past accidents. Based on the pure birth process a method for predicting aircraft accidents is presented. Application of this procedure to various test cases shows interesting and useful conclusions that can be drawn.

Descriptors:

• *AVIATION ACCIDENTS
• *NAVAL AIRCRAFT
• FEASIBILITY STUDIES
• ACCIDENTS
• STATISTICAL PROCESSES
• CORRELATION TECHNIQUES
• RELIABILITY
• STATISTICAL DATA
• MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION

Subject Categories:

• Safety Engineering

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE