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The Pure Birth Process Applied to Navy Aircraft Accidents
NAVAL AIR SYSTEMS COMMAND WASHINGTON DC PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT CENTER
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Non-combat aircraft accident statistics indicate that a direct relationship exists between the number of accidents and accumulated flight hours or similarly between the accident rate and accumulated flight hours for each model of military airplane. This paper investigates the feasibility of relating accident rates directly to the total number of past accidents. Based on the pure birth process a method for predicting aircraft accidents is presented. Application of this procedure to various test cases shows interesting and useful conclusions that can be drawn.
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE