Fundamental Theory and Problems Related to Long Range Forecasting.
Final scientific rept.,
OFFICE OF RESEARCH ANALYSES HOLLOMAN AFB NM
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The document discusses forecasting as a system of logical processes implicit in planning and decision making. The system is analyzed to components and functions. Key points and barriers to more effective operation are identified, with opportunities for avoiding or reducing some of the barriers, and promising avenues for further research. Criteria are developed for estimating the potential effectiveness of a given forecast or forecasting methodology. Empirical research to increase the validity of social theories is advanced as the most promising avenue for improvement of forecasting, planning and decision making. Author
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