Accession Number:

AD0839284

Title:

INVESTIGATION OF A BAYESIAN APPROACH APPLIED TO A SPECIFIC INTELLIGENCE PROBLEM,

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

HRB-SINGER INC STATE COLLEGE PA

Personal Author(s):

• Luckie, Peter T.
• Smith, Dennis E.
• Wright, Grace H.

Report Date:

1968-06-01

Pagination or Media Count:

65.0

Abstract:

Although it appears theoretically possible that many problems of intelligence could be profitably attacked by a Bayesian approach, several difficulties must be overcome before such an approach can be used as an operational tool. Because test applications of a Bayesian approach to real problems of intelligence offer insight into the areas of difficulty, a specific previously solved intelligence problem was explored with the aid of a cooperating intelligence analyst who used a Bayesian approach. This report discusses the salient aspects of the intelligence problem area, the specific difficulties encountered in the implementation of a Bayesian approach, and the techniques used to eliminate or diminish these difficulties. In addition, the solutions obtained with and without the aid of a Bayesian model are compared and causes of discrepancies are postulated. Author

Descriptors:

• (*MILITARY INTELLIGENCE
• STATISTICAL ANALYSIS)
• (*DATA PROCESSING
• MILITARY INTELLIGENCE)
• PROBABILITY
• MATHEMATICAL MODELS
• NUMERICAL ANALYSIS
• ERRORS
• INFORMATION RETRIEVAL
• INFORMATION THEORY
• NETWORKS
• OPERATIONS RESEARCH
• COMPUTER PROGRAMS
• COMPILERS

Subject Categories:

• Information Science
• Statistics and Probability
• Operations Research
• Military Intelligence

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE