DECISION NETWORK TECHNIQUES FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT.
OPERATIONS RESEARCH INC SILVER SPRING MD
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This report describes decision network techniques that provide a method of obtaining estimates of the probabilities that a defense system can be acquired within an allowable time period P1 and cost P2, and above a minimum system effectiveness level P3. These techniques establish a quantitative basis for status evaluation of the system development and the acceptability or need for change in the resources allocation or management structure. The decision network is fundamentally designed for application during the acquisition phase, but it can also be used at every stage in the system development life cycle. In the formulation of these techniques, particular attention is focused on the structure and utility of the network and practical methods of providing valid input estimates from which the required overall time, cost, and effectiveness level estimates can be derived. It is concluded that conventional network activity time and cost estimates are adequate for developing the P1 and P2 probabilistic estimates. Further, the most promising procedure for providing the decision point probability is by means of a single estimate from the person responsible for the preceding activity with refinement of that estimate by successive levels of supervision. The decision network techniques are compared with the concepts, procedures, and policies set forth by the Weapon System Effectiveness Industry Advisory Committee WSEIAC, the Air Force Systems Command, and the Department of Defense with the conclusion that the latter are all basically compatible with the decision network formalisms. Author
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