Accession Number:

AD0802571

Title:

HOSTILE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNICATION, ARMS PRODUCTION, AND PERCEPTION OF THREAT: A SIMULATION STUDY,

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

STANFORD UNIV CA INST OF POLITICAL STUDIES

Personal Author(s):

• Brody, Richard A.
• Benham, Alexandra H.
• Milstein, Jeffrey S.

Report Date:

1966-07-01

Pagination or Media Count:

116.0

Abstract:

This study represents an attempt to account for two types of hostile international behavior--the sending of hostile international communication and the production of arms. Four phases of a decision model are posted and a number of relevant variables are identified. Thirteen hypotheses linking the variables are considered and explored in data from sixteen replications of an experimental inter-nation simulation man-machine. Of the thirteen hypotheses, one was examined in only the first of three time periods it failed to show significant results. Of the remaining twelve hypotheses, six were upheld in all three time periods the other six were upheld in some time periods but not in others. The time periods relate to before, during and after the experimental spread of nuclear weapons. The study concludes that hostile behavior is in general a product or hostile behavior and perceptions of that behavior and that a variety of elements such as salience, capability, threat and perceived qualities of the external nation are involved in accounting for hostile action. Author

Descriptors:

• *THREAT EVALUATION
• ARMS CONTROL
• COMMUNICATION AND RADIO SYSTEMS
• MATHEMATICAL MODELS
• GAME THEORY
• OPERATIONS RESEARCH
• INFORMATION THEORY
• WAR GAMES
• POLITICAL SCIENCE
• BEHAVIOR
• GOVERNMENT(FOREIGN)

Subject Categories:

• Government and Political Science
• Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE