Parametric Cost Estimating with Applications to Sonar Technology.
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF
Pagination or Media Count:
The problem of cost overruns has been prevalent in the acquisition of weapon systems. Parametric cost analysis was instituted by the Department of Defense as a means of obtaining accurate initial cost estimates. The parametric approach uses cost estimating relationships CER in the development of cost predictions. An algorithm is presented for the development of parametric cost estimates obtained from CERs. Fictitious sonar data is used to provide an example of the application of the algorithm. Input and output CERs are developed and used in the construction of a parametric cost estimate for a proposed submarine sonar system. The problems of data collection, normalization, and aggregation are discussed. Numerous linear regression techniques are applied to the data to obtain the final cost models. Uncertainty in the final cost estimate due to the learning curve effect is discussed along with the uncertainty contained in the cost prediction interval. Author
- Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies
- Acoustic Detection and Detectors