A Prototype Computer Program for Interactive Computer-Administered Admissible Probability Measurement
RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA
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This report describes an experimental computer implementation of admissible probability measurement techniques. These measurement techniques rely on a scoring system that encourages the user to reproduce or reveal his own estimate of the probability of correctness of an answer to a multiple-choice question. A track record in the form of an external validity graph of the users probability estimating performance provides the means for estimating how much information he has and how realistically that level of knowledge is assessed. The computer system allows the user to explore the relationships between his assignment of probability of correctness to answers and the possible score outcome.
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