Multiperiod Adaptive Control of the Wellhead Price of Natural Gas: A Bayesian Decision Theoretic Approach.
MASSACHUSETTS INST OF TECH CAMBRIDGE OPERATIONS RESEARCH CENTER
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This dissertation provides a methodology for the multiperiod adaptive control of one or more policy variables belonging to a system of linear simultaneous equations by Bayesian methods. The methodology is developed in the context of a specific problem, the dynamic regulation of the wellhead price of natural gas. A mathematical model is first formulated which can probabilistically predict the magnitude of the additions to natural gas reserves and the supply of produced gas due to new contracts for specified values of the wellhead price of natural gas in each range of values assumed by these three variables. Based on the criterion of maximizing expected utility a sequential N-period optimal pricing strategy is then evaluated. Modified author abstract
- Economics and Cost Analysis
- Operations Research