The Effect of Data Source Reliability on Intuitive Inference
ARMY RESEARCH INST FOR THE BEHAVIORAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCES ALEXANDRIA VA
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As part of a continuing effort to provide research information which will facilitate improved intelligence information processing, a study was made of mans processing and utilization of unreliable data. Reports from data sources of given reliability and diagnosticity were presented to 22 subjects in a series of two-hypothesis decision problems. On each problem, each subject indicated the most likely of the two hypotheses and the subjective odds favoring that hypothesis. In most cases, as reliability decreased, subjective odds increased relative to Bayesian odds.