A Technological Forecast for Gallium Arsenide Lasers.
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF
Pagination or Media Count:
A technological forecast for GaAs injection lasers operating at room temperature is made. It indicates significant technological progress followed by widespread use for optical waveguide communications in the early 1980s. Extrapolated values for power, efficiency, lifetime, threshold current, and cost per watt are tabulated for the years 1976 and 1980. Two trend extrapolation techniques based on the different assumptions that technological progress advances exponentially with time and that technological progress advances exponentially with cumulative production are compared. The technological progress function which uses patent output as a measure of cumulative production is determined to be the best measure in the case of the injection laser. Author
- Lasers and Masers