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Decision Theory Research
Technical progress rept. no. 3, 1 Sep 1973-28 Feb 1974
DECISIONS AND DESIGNS INC MCLEAN VA
Pagination or Media Count:
A report is presented concerning research for improving human judgments of probabilities and utilities for decision making, and the application of decision theory to problems in resource allocation and policy analysis. Decision theoretic concepts are developed and procedures established for encoding uncertainties as probabilities and incorporating attitudes toward risk into utilities. An approach is developed for translating national level decision making information needs for strategic planning into requirements which have the likelihood of being satisfied under varying options of resource allocation. A methodology is developed for intelligence analyst use of credible interval assessments without the use of sophisticated computer programs. Using as a case study the recent Energy crisis, decision theory analysis is investigated as an appropriate methodology for developing optimum outcomes for various alternatives in national and international policy negotiations. The substance of recent activities for decision analysis application to problems of current and scientific intelligence is reported. Appendix I reports on three Decision Theory Workshops which were conducted in November 1973.
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE