An Experiment in Probabilistic Forecasting
RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA
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The report describes an experiment in forecasting economic, political, and military events, expressing uncertainty with explicit probabilities. The subjects were 31 UCLA summer students 16 graduate students, 14 upper classmen, and one freshman, of both sexes, ages ranging from 28 to 41, with a wide variety of majors. The questions, asked in July 1970, called for forecasts of December 1970 quantities. Results were scored when the factual outcomes were known.