DID YOU KNOW? DTIC has over 3.5 million final reports on DoD funded research, development, test, and evaluation activities available to our registered users. Click
HERE to register or log in.
Accession Number:
AD0777061
Title:
An Experiment in Probabilistic Forecasting
Descriptive Note:
Corporate Author:
RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA
Report Date:
1973-05-01
Pagination or Media Count:
55.0
Abstract:
The report describes an experiment in forecasting economic, political, and military events, expressing uncertainty with explicit probabilities. The subjects were 31 UCLA summer students 16 graduate students, 14 upper classmen, and one freshman, of both sexes, ages ranging from 28 to 41, with a wide variety of majors. The questions, asked in July 1970, called for forecasts of December 1970 quantities. Results were scored when the factual outcomes were known.
Distribution Statement:
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE