Accession Number:

AD0776823

Title:

Forecasting Transportation Tonnage by an Adaptive Smoothing Model

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS

Personal Author(s):

• James, Jr., Francis E.

Report Date:

1973-12-01

Pagination or Media Count:

27.0

Abstract:

The paper describes a research project which was designed to investigate the feasibility of using mathematical models to forecast cargo air shipments. Seven mathematical models were evaluated. In a two phase research effort, actual movement through eight routes over forty-one months was first evaluated according to six different criteria for six forecasting models. Parameters were varied for the models to approach optimality. Using results from the first phase, three models were re-evaluated through thirty-nine routes for thirty-six months each. An adaptive exponential model was identified as being most suitable for the contemplated usage.

Descriptors:

• *AIR TRANSPORTATION
• *CARGO
• AIR FORCE
• FORECASTING
• LEAD TIME
• LEAST SQUARES METHOD
• LOGISTICS PLANNING
• MATHEMATICAL MODELS
• MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION
• REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Subject Categories:

• Theoretical Mathematics
• Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE