Accession Number:

AD0770686

Title:

Direct Estimation Procedures for Eliciting Judgments About Uncertain Events

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept.

Corporate Author:

MICHIGAN UNIV ANN ARBOR ENGINEERING PSYCHOLOGY LAB

Personal Author(s):

• Goodman, Barbara C.

Report Date:

1973-11-02

Pagination or Media Count:

45.0

Abstract:

The report re-analyses data from five studies concerned with methods for eliciting judgments about uncertain events. It focuses on response modes, such as odds, likelihood ratios, etc. whether or not the response required the subject to aggregate items of data in his head whether the scale on which the response was made logarithmic or linear and whether the subject received additional feedback about the implications of his estimates in the course of making them.

Descriptors:

• *BAYES THEOREM
• *DECISION MAKING
• *INFORMATION PROCESSING
• *PREDICTIONS
• DECISION THEORY
• ESTIMATES
• FEEDBACK
• GAME THEORY
• PROBABILITY
• RESPONSE
• UNCERTAINTY

Subject Categories:

• Psychology
• Operations Research

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE