Accession Number:

AD0770187

Title:

Relative Variance Preferences in a Choice-Among-Bets Paradigm

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept.

Corporate Author:

MICHIGAN UNIV ANN ARBOR ENGINEERING PSYCHOLOGY LAB

Personal Author(s):

• Seghers, Raymond C.
• Fryback, Dennis G.
• Goodman, Barbara C.

Report Date:

1973-11-02

Pagination or Media Count:

41.0

Abstract:

The validity of the prime assumption of proper scoring rules PSR, that people maximize subjective expected value SEV, was tested in the case where SEV was assumed to equal EV. A choice-among-bets paradigm was used in which the lists of bets conformed to the requirements of a PSR. Both real and hypothetical payoff conditions were used, and in addition, EV, variance, and odds of the gambles were systematically varied. The use of list of bets generated by a PSR as a response mode for inferring subjective probabilities is questioned because of the weakness of the SEV maximization assumption in this context.

Descriptors:

• *BEHAVIOR
• *DECISION MAKING
• ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE
• GAME THEORY
• MATHEMATICAL MODELS
• PROBABILITY
• VALIDATION

Subject Categories:

• Psychology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE