Two Methods of Assessing Probability Distributions.
DECISIONS AND DESIGNS INC MCLEAN VA
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Two methods of assessing continuous probability distributions were evaluated the interval method, in which subjects were required to divide the range of possible values into equally likely intervals, and the point method, in which they were required to assess the relative likelihood of point values. Both methods yielded credible intervals which were too narrow, but the interval method was considerably less biased than the point method. In addition, the sizes of the credible intervals were directly related to the degree to which the subjects most likely value approximated the true value. Author
- Statistics and Probability