A Preliminary Analysis of International Instability in a Long-Range Forecasting Model
CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA
Pagination or Media Count:
Acts of internal instability are defined as those events where political violence is used to alter governmental policies or practices. Instability is defined in terms of two dimensions, turmoil and revolution, which correspond to the two classes of destabilizing acts described above. Turmoil is measured by occurrences of riots and demonstrations, while revolution is measured by armed attacks. Each of these measures is weighted for severity by deaths due to domestic violence. Several endogenous and exogenous predictors are used to forecast turmoil and revolution. These endogenous predictors include a nations trade, its trade concentration, the size of its economic and military power bases, and the extent of its major power alignments. Among the exogenous predictors of internal instability are population, the nations history of negative government sanctions, and its history of regular power transfers. Forecasts of the internal instability descriptor will indicate which European nations are most likely to experience severe turmoil and revolutionary activity in the period 1985-1994, and will detail the reasons behind these expectations. These forecasts will be grouped by current and expected future NATO and Warsaw Pact membership, and will compute expected levels of instability for NATO nations, Warsaw Pact nations, and other likely groupings of nations.
- Government and Political Science