A Proposed Methodology for Weapon System Development Risk Assessment.
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OHIO SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
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Formal risk analysis has become a required part of the weapons acquisition process since 1969. Many methods of quantitative risk assessment require extensive data collection solely for risk purposes. Frequent assessments thus become costly. The thesis proposes a risk assessment methodology that uses contractor-reported data extracted from the standard Cost Performance Report and Schedule Status Report. A graphical network of a project is constructed using the symbology and logic available with the Venture Evaluation and Review Technique VERT computer routine. Each network arc is made to correspond with a contract work breakdown structure element. The marginal probability density functions of the network arcs are assumed to be Beta distributed. The parameters of each arcs time and cost distribution are determined using the contractors monthly revised estimates for work breakdown element costs and completion dates and applying the method of moments. A test application on a weapons system currently in full-scale development was conducted. The test results, although inconclusive, did tend to show promise and merit further application of the methodology. Author
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