Methods of Presenting Climatological Information for Use in Planning and Supporting Weather Sensitive Operations
Final rept. 1 Apr 1970-30 Jun 1973
SAINT LOUIS UNIV MO DEPT OF EARTH AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
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The research considered the devising of climatic presentations for usage in preparing 2- and 4-hour forecasts of low ceilings and restricted visibilities and the providing of integrated-wind information within the drop- zone layer in support of paradrop operations. A hierarchy of empirical relationships for estimating the recurrence probabilities under a numer of contingencies are made possible through the use of statistical modelling techniques which act to conserve the data base. These are 1 a model for generating recurrence probabilities which considers only the latest observed ceiling category, 2 one which incorporates surface wind information, 3 another which includes moisture considerations and 4 one which introduces observed moisture and wind information diagnostically without having to assume the persistency of these variables, or otherwise forecast their behavior, throughout the forecast interval.