Optimum Wind Soundings and Army Fallout Prediction Accuracies.
ARMY ELECTRONICS COMMAND FORT MONMOUTH N J
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ND AN EXPRESSION IS DERIVED TO FIND THE OPTIMUM SOUNDING PERIOD FOR MAXIMUM COST EFFECTIVENESS. Consideration of accuracy versus cost trade-offs is used to show that if 6-hour sounding periods are the policy, they are optimum for nuclear yields up to 100 Kilotons KT, and the acceptable error in downwind range prediction is about 50. However, decreasing the error to 20 by shortening sounding periods results in 5-fold cost increase. Further losses of prediction accuracy with small cost savings are the result of increasing the sampling period. To continue to practice of 6-hour sounding periods or to reduce the density of soundings to less than one per Corps would imply accepting an error larger than 20 in fallout prediction for weapons greater than 4 KT. Author
- Atmospheric Physics
- Radioactivity, Radioactive Wastes and Fission Products