Typhoon and Tropical Storm Intensity Forecasts Using Statistical Regression Equations.
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF
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Statistical regression equations were derived to predict future 24-hour changes in intensity of tropical storms and typhoons in the western North Pacific. The predictors were chosen from 55 parameters available at six-hourly observations of tropical storms and typhoons during the period 1960-1969. Two five-predictor equations, which require only 12 hours of history, can predict intensity for the majority of storms within the period July-September, and give significantly better results than current intensity forecast methods.