Some Preliminary Short-Term Predictions of International Interaction.
Working paper no. 1,
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES DEPT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
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The initial attempt at short-term prediction of international interaction has focused on major actor interaction and output. The methods employed were chosen on the basis of their simplicity and releveance to some relatively general propositions concerning international interaction, i.e., that future behavior is a function of past behavior and also of what actions it receives. The analysis has served two functions. First, some tentative judgments regarding the most effective methods and time periods have been made. Second, many ideas about where to go from here have been stimulated. Both functions will help to focus the continuing effort to establish more relaible theoretical propositions regarding international interaction processes.
- Government and Political Science