Which Future for the Planner: Proposals
ARMY WAR COLLEGE CARLISLE BARRACKS PA CARLISLE BARRACKS
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The report distinguishes between four categories of studies technological forecasting, threat studies, environmental socio-political forecasting, and concept studies and highlights their contribution to defense decision making. It presents nine non-mutually exclusive rationales for consideration of the future. Four time frames near, mid-, long-, and very-long-range are discussed showing the interrelationship of the constituent parts. Particular emphasis is given to a proposal for an unconstrained very-long-range study. It calls for approaching the addressal of the future in a manner provides guidance, which relates products addressing each time frame to the closer time frame studies, and, which provides a guide to proper balancing of resources and the type and extent of output.