Optimum Allocation of Effort for Deterrence
CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA ALEXANDRIA United States
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Mathematical models of optimum procurement allocation among different types of retaliatory weapons systems are examined. A distinction is drawn between so-called numerically vulnerable NV systems which find safety in numbers and are approximated by fixed missle bases and percentage vulnerable PV systems which require the enemy to engage in a search effort to counter them. It is shown that it is generally preferable to buy a mix of PV systems and only a single optimal NV system. The models are also applicable to measure-countermeasure problems other than deterrence.