On the Operational Value of Terminal Weather Forecasts.
Air Force surveys in Geophysics,
AIR FORCE CAMBRIDGE RESEARCH LABS L G HANSCOM FIELD MASS
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Real forecast verifications are used to test a Wx-85 conclusion based on synthetic data namely, that where the climatic frequency of closed terminal weather is as low as found typically in the CONUS, then the present level of forecasting skill for periods of 3 hours or more is of negative value to aircraft operations. The new results confirm the previous conclusion for longer periods but suggest that it is unduly pessimistic with respect to the 3-hour forecast. Author