A Preliminary Model for Retirement Forecasting.
NAVAL UNDERWATER SYSTEMS CENTER NEWPORT R I
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A probabilistic model was devised that constructs a profile of the possible retirements that can be expected within a specified interval of time. Retirement distributions were found to be multimodal for optional retirements. The introduction of a cost of living bonus during a time interval tends to cause additional retirements to occur between the first and second modes of the optional distributions. Discontinued Service retirements occur most often when the candidate is between 1-2 years before optional retirement eligibility. This model is useful in showing that mathematical profiles of retirees can be constructed and is the beginning effort toward developing more sophisticated techniques aimed at this goal. Author
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations