Accession Number:

AD0754178

Title:

Technological Forecast: 1975-2000. A Descriptive Outlook and Method for Quantitative Prediction

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION WASHINGTON DC OFFICE OF SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND INFORMATION

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1970-05-01

Pagination or Media Count:

355.0

Abstract:

The report is divided into two parts. The first part provides a description of expected trends in transportation for both passenger and freight movements for the next 30 years. The second part describes a methodology for forecasting, at an aggregate level of detail and as a function of time value, out of pocket costs and trip distance, the modal split of passengers in a forecast year between 1975-2000. The second part also describes the use of the methodology to examine the probable effects of emphasizing the development of one technology over another. There are also 4 Appendices. Appendix 1 describes a 1965 Passenger Mile Data Base Table, as a function of mode and trip distance. Appendix 2 similarly describes a 1965 Commodity Ton-Mile Data Base Table. Appendix 3 describes the results of a Delphi Forecasting Exercise and Appendix 4 describes the parameters used to define each system used in the modal split.

Subject Categories:

  • Civil Engineering

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE