Technological Forecast: 1975-2000. A Descriptive Outlook and Method for Quantitative Prediction
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION WASHINGTON DC OFFICE OF SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND INFORMATION
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The report is divided into two parts. The first part provides a description of expected trends in transportation for both passenger and freight movements for the next 30 years. The second part describes a methodology for forecasting, at an aggregate level of detail and as a function of time value, out of pocket costs and trip distance, the modal split of passengers in a forecast year between 1975-2000. The second part also describes the use of the methodology to examine the probable effects of emphasizing the development of one technology over another. There are also 4 Appendices. Appendix 1 describes a 1965 Passenger Mile Data Base Table, as a function of mode and trip distance. Appendix 2 similarly describes a 1965 Commodity Ton-Mile Data Base Table. Appendix 3 describes the results of a Delphi Forecasting Exercise and Appendix 4 describes the parameters used to define each system used in the modal split.
- Civil Engineering