Forecasting Peak Proton Flux and PCA Event Magnitudes Using 'Flash-Phase' Integrated Radio-Burst Flux Density.
Environmental research papers,
AIR FORCE CAMBRIDGE RESEARCH LABS L G HANSCOM FIELD MASS
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A new parameter is introduced for use in forecasting the magnitudes of solar proton and polar cap absorption events. Semi-integrated flux density is the integrated radio flux density under the start-to-maximum burst curve. An approximation to this function was correlated at five operational frequencies against both observed peak proton flux and observed riometer absorption, obtaining correlation coefficients or 0.88 at frequencies between 2695- and 8800-MHz. An operational real-time forecast scheme is detailed for the solar forecaster. Results from this study, which uses peak proton fluxes both corrected and uncorrected for solar disk positions, indicate that forecasts have a higher degree of correlation with observations if propagation corrections are not applied as present methods dictate. When used in conjunction with the Castelli U burst spectrum criteria for forecasting the occurrence of proton events, radio data can be used exclusively for both a yesno and an event magnitude forecast. A comparison with the method presently in use at the Air Weather Services Aerospace Environmental Support Center, Solar Forecast Branch is made with very favorable results. Author
- Atmospheric Physics