Accession Number:

AD0751561

Title:

Judgments of Probability and Utility for Decision Making

Descriptive Note:

Final rept.

Corporate Author:

MICHIGAN UNIV ANN ARBOR ENGINEERING PSYCHOLOGY LAB

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1972-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

32.0

Abstract:

This is a report of psychological research on decision analysis. The experimental research developed and tested procedures for eliciting assessments of probability and utility as inputs to decision analyses. One experiment on probability assessment with a known data-generating process evaluated scales and feedback as aids to the use of Bayess theorem for revising probabilities in the light of new information. The other one evaluated the effectiveness of a scoring-rule test designed to calibrate probability assessors. There were several experiments on multi-attribute utility assessment. On-line research tested these procedures on naval problems.

Subject Categories:

  • Psychology
  • Operations Research

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE