Methods for Applying a Tracking Signal to Monitor Single Exponential Smoothing Forecast
ARMY MATERIEL SYSTEMS ANALYSIS ACTIVITY ABERDEEN PROVING GROUND MD
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The tracking signal developed by Trigg which has gained wide acceptance is useful for monitoring single exponential smoothing forecasts. If forecasts become biased, the tracking signal will increase in absolute value indicating the possible need to change the smoothing constant which is the one adjustable parameter in single exponential smoothing. Two methods of applying the tracking signal to monitor exponential smoothing forecasts are discussed in the document. The method which was applied to depot workload forecasts is described in detail and the tables of confidence limits which are necessary to apply this method are given.
- Statistics and Probability