A Proposed Method for Defining and Measuring Weapons Delivery System Accuracy
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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The report was prepared in response to a growing concern about the adequacy of present measures and methodologies in depicting air-to-ground delivery system accuracy. An accuracy measure, measurement methodology and performance guarantee based on cost-effectiveness techniques are developed. The measure is based on the frequency of mission success. The methodology is based on Bayesian techniques using a multinomial distribution to represent the radial miss distance pattern. A technique for using an estimate of CEP to determine the prior parameters is developed. Actual and simulated impact data are used to compare the proposed methodology to historically accepted and other recently proposed techniques. The methods of cost-effectiveness are applied to guaranteeing an air-to-ground system in an effort toward making costs more controllable.