Accession Number:

AD0747338

Title:

Issues of Surprise Exploitation in U. S. Security Policy for Central and Eastern Europe

Descriptive Note:

Final rept.

Corporate Author:

HUDSON INST CROTON-ON-HUDSON NY

Personal Author(s):

• Pfaff, William
• Stillman, Edmund
• Kahn, Herman

Report Date:

1971-09-07

Pagination or Media Count:

103.0

Abstract:

The document discusses two main classes of diplomatic and strategic surprise, described as true surprises and those which reflect failures of analysis and anticipation. Today East-West relations in Europe are jeopardized by several important forces of change which imply a deepening, perhaps eventually decisive, alteration in the configuration of power dominating the strategic and poticical situation in Europe. The immediate future in Eastern Europe is likely to produce more important surprising changes and crises than at any time since the mid-1950s. Standard U.S. scenarios for European crisis, confrontation, and change seem no longer relevant. For the United States to exploit surprising events in order to bring about positive and consturctive change there must be American and NATO policy goals for Eastern and Central Europe which are themselves positive, politically responsible, and potentially attainable. This problem will become acute since a European Security Conference is likely in the near future.

Descriptors:

• *FOREIGN POLICY
• *UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT
• EASTERN EUROPE
• POLITICAL SCIENCE
• PREDICTIONS
• THREAT EVALUATION
• USSR

Subject Categories:

• Government and Political Science

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE