Forecasting the Motion of Northeastern Pacific Tropical Cyclones.
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF
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Several operational methods of forecasting the motion of tropical cyclones over the northeast Pacific Ocean area are evaluated for three 1970 and nine 1971 hurricanes. OFFICIAL forecast accuracy is shown to excel that of TYRACK 1971 only and HATRACK both years. The MODIFIED HATRACK MODHATR forecast scheme developed by the Navy in Monterey, California, comprising a numerical steering component HATRACK with a statistical modification correction for bias in HATRACK is applied to the same 1970-71 operational data, with the result that the MODHATR accuracy, using 850 mb steering, is shown to be superior to HATRACK and TYRACK while only slightly inferior to the OFFICIAL forecasts. Author