Accession Number:

AD0743611

Title:

Bayesian Reliability Assessment for Systems Program Decisions

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING

Personal Author(s):

• White, Lewis R.

Report Date:

1971-12-01

Pagination or Media Count:

127.0

Abstract:

Bayesian statistics provide the necessary mathematical techniques to pool all available subjective and experimental information when estimating reliability. The uncertainties associated with analytical predictions or limited test data considered separately are significantly reduced when these two sources of information are combined. The introduction of judgment and pertinent engineering theory and experience to qualify point estimates is the key to realistic and practical solutions to decision problems in which reliability is a primary consideration. A method for periodic reliability assessment is presented. A hypothetical example is used to show how iterative inference on system reliability can be drawn from initial estimates of unitsubsystem reliability and heterogeneous time and failure data accumulated during various stages of design verification, electrical performance, environmental, etc. testing.

Descriptors:

• *DECISION THEORY
• *RELIABILITY
• THESES
• STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS
• CONFIDENCE LIMITS
• PROCUREMENT
• STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
• PROBABILITY
• LIFE EXPECTANCY(SERVICE LIFE)

Subject Categories:

• Statistics and Probability
• Manufacturing and Industrial Engineering and Control of Production Systems

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE