Regression Methods in Five-Day Mean Height Prediction at 500MB Using Mean NIMBUS II Composited for Identical Periods in the Update Procedure.
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A series of 15 successive 5-day mean 500mb height fields in gridprint form covering the quasi-hemispheric area between 14.8 - 70.2N latitude was used in this experiment. The time period extended between 15 May 1966 through 28 July 1966. The stepwise regression procedure was employed to derive statistical estimator equations for each mean map field Z5I,J,t1 in terms of the preceding field data Z5I,J,t as the primary predictor, t1 2, ..., 15. As additional predictors, the 5-day mean composited gridpoint values of the NIMBUS II MRIR equivalent black body temperatures in the water-vapor channel denoted T1 and the window channel denoted T2 were introduced bor both analyses times t1 and t1. The five-predictor regression equations thus developed for Z5I,J, t1 proved to have substantial statistical significance, both from the standpoint of the specification and of prediction of Z5I,J,t2 valid five days later t2 3, ..., 15. Author