Probabilistic Structure Design
ARMY MATERIEL COMMAND TEXARKANA TX INTERN TRAINING CENTER
Pagination or Media Count:
The paper proposes a method of structural design which evalutes the risk of failure. Whereas conventional design is based upon safety factors which help reduce risk, but do not evaluate it, the probabilistic approach estimates the actual level risk for the structural model. The method of the paper is applicable when major parameters follow the NormAL Gaussian distribution. Reliability is used as the measure of risk. For the purposes of the paper, reliability is defined as the probability that a structure withstands design loads for a specified time in a specified environment. A reliability of 0.99 indicates a one percent chance that the structure will fail. Basic examples are included to demonstrate the use of the method.
- Operations Research
- Manufacturing and Industrial Engineering and Control of Production Systems
- Structural Engineering and Building Technology