Accession Number:

AD0736113

Title:

A Finite Markov Chain Model of the Combat Process

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1971-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

63.0

Abstract:

A generalized combat process is structured as a regular finite Markov chain with states reflecting the control, maneuver, target acquisition, and target destruction actions of a weapons system. The mean and variance of the first passage times to certain states and the limiting distribution of the amount of time that the process remains in a given state are suggested as being useful measures of the effectiveness of a weapons system. Some statistical techniques for estimating the one-step transition probabilities are given, and methods for modeling deterministic and stochastic action times, i.e., the amount of time that the process remains in a given state are presented. It is also shown that the reciprocal of an element of the mean first passage time matrix of the Markov chain model of the generalized combat process can be defined as the Lanchester attrition coefficient for a square law combat process. The usefulness of this contribution to the Lanchester theory of combat is discussed.

Subject Categories:

  • Operations Research
  • Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE