International System and Foreign Policy Approaches: Implications for Conflict Modelling and Management
Research rept. no. 5 (Final)
MICHIGAN UNIV ANN ARBOR INTERNATIONAL DATA ARCHIVE AND ANALYSIS CENTER
Pagination or Media Count:
The study compares an international system approach and a foreign policy approach to the study of alliance behavior in conflict situations. The Berlin Conflict of 1961 provides a case in which the study explores an event- interaction model, an organizational process model, and a combination of both. As hypothesized, the organizational processes model is more valid than the other models in the pre- and post-crisis phases of the Berlin Conflict of 1961. The combined model is more relevant during the crisis phase. The results have implications for conflict modelling. With respect to conflict management, there is an important implication. Since the organizational processes model may be more valid than an event interaction model, then conflict managers in situations like Berlin 1961 should be sensitized to the role of organizational factors in determining outcomes. The study, however, does not test hypotheses concerning organizational decision-making. The study does suggest that a computer based model of decision-making would be a useful tool for conflict management, preliminary version of which is the Computer Aided Conflict Information System. Using expert judgments to describe conflicts, CACIS compares prior situations with a present conflict and evaluates the consequences of policy alternatives previously employed. In addition, the system allows for the creation of simulated conflict scenarios. The system, thus, could expand the political options available to decision-makers.
- Government and Political Science