A Study of Consensus on Psychological Factors Related to Recovery from Nuclear Attack.
HUMAN SCIENCES RESEARCH INC MCLEAN VA
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A study was made of the agreement that exists among experts about the probable social and psychological consequences of nuclear war, and the impact of such factors on the process of national recovery. The research method involved the interrogation of a panel of cognizant government officials, military officers, and research scientists, using a variation of the iterative Delphi procedure. Very generally, the panel was in agreement that, while the variety of individual and group behaviors could be expected to increase, the incidence of adaptive behavior would likely outweigh that of maladaptive behavior. However a very strong tendency for social systems to fragment into small, local, short-sighted, and self-interested groups was predicted. A diverse set of projections are presented and discussed in depth by the panelists, and estimations of the effects of social and psychological factors on such numerical variables as the postattack availability of labor are given. Author