Accession Number:

AD0729069

Title:

Expert Opinion about Uncertainty

Descriptive Note:

Technical Report

Corporate Author:

WASHINGTON UNIV SEATTLE SEATTLE

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1971-04-01

Pagination or Media Count:

52.0

Abstract:

The paper reviews decision theoretic approaches to the use of experts verbal estimates of the probabilities of events in military decision making, weather forecasting, and medical diagnosis. The basic concept is Bayes Theorem, and scoring rules and the data on verbal estimates are reviewed.

Subject Categories:

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE